AI-driven capex excess among hyperscalers, combined with macro and geopolitical risks, threatens an AI-trade unwind and steepening of S&P 500 losses.

ECB Holds Rates Again, Flags Trade and Inflation Risks—EUR/USD Bias Stays Soft, Favoring Short Trades

BoE held rates 3.75% on narrow 5-4 vote, signaling a dovish bias and a data-dependent stance

U.S. services PMI beat expectations, but weakening new orders, employment, and exports signal slowing momentum and limit upside for risk assets.

ADP data showed sharply weaker private job growth, sectoral job losses, stable wage growth, and highlighted a continued slowdown in U.S. labor market momentum.

Eurozone inflation eases, rendering ECB rate cuts unlikely soon, likely keeping euro range-bound and futures reactive to global data.

An unexpected crude inventory draw lifted oil prices, with traders now watching EIA data for confirmation.

Barkin signals rate cuts have cushioned jobs and inflation is cooling but still above target, keeping the Fed ready to act.

Stronger-than-expected manufacturing data shifts focus to higher yields and a firmer dollar, pressuring rate-sensitive and commodity futures.

Warsh’s hawkish Fed nomination strengthened dollar, lifted yields, crushed gold and silver, while weak China PMIs also added pressure on commodities.

OPEC+ kept output unchanged, and geopolitical fears eased, sending oil down over 5%, with traders eyeing key $61 support levels.

Regional manufacturing surveys surged into expansion in January, signaling economic momentum, stronger orders, easing prices, and growing optimism ahead of ISM’s national data.